Oil prices have seen their most significant weekly increase since April, with Brent crude nearing $85 per barrel after an 11% rise over the past week. However, analysts suggest that for Brent to surpass $90 per barrel, a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or a marked decrease in global oil supplies would be necessary.
The surge in prices comes amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, which have impacted supply routes in the Middle East and slowed tanker traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz. Despite these rising regional tensions, Brent crude has not been able to maintain levels above this week’s peak of $87.55 per barrel. Market experts note that traders are hopeful diplomatic efforts will prevent a prolonged crisis.
As a critical passage for about 20% of the world’s oil supply, the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for energy markets. With tanker movements decelerating, shipping companies are keeping a close eye on the security situation in the region. The effect of these tensions is already apparent in fuel markets, as refining margins in the United States have increased due to dwindling diesel and gasoline supplies. European fuel markets are also experiencing mounting pressure, further exacerbated by additional disruptions to Russian exports.
According to analysts, for oil prices to decisively break the $90 threshold, a significant drop in inventories or an escalation in Washington-Tehran tensions causing an extended disruption in Hormuz shipping would be needed. Currently, traders are concentrating on diplomatic progress and supply data, which are expected to dictate the next major developments in the global oil markets.