DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has conducted a scenario analysis examining the potential impacts of an ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkish tourism, a critical sector for the country’s economy. This analysis, utilizing DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025, was spearheaded by the platform’s founder, Alper Tekin. Given Türkiye’s geographical proximity to the conflict zone, with six of its top ten tourist sources located within 3,000 kilometers, the country’s tourism industry is particularly vulnerable. Contributing more than 11 percent to the national GDP and supporting around three million jobs, tourism is a significant economic pillar in Türkiye.
The Crisis Impact Simulator employed by DataGreat does not provide forecasts but rather deterministic scenarios using data from the WTTC and World Bank. The platform incorporates a generative AI layer to create explanatory narratives, ensuring rigor by only accepting outputs with verifiable numeric claims, a concept Tekin terms “zero hallucinations.” Among the scenarios analyzed, Scenario A considers regional escalation, which could disrupt airspace and tighten sanctions, impacting European leisure travel to Türkiye. In this scenario, countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands might defer leisure travel plans, though business travel from the EU appears more resilient.
Scenario B focuses on a potential downturn in Russian outbound tourism, with Russia being Türkiye’s largest inbound market. The simulator assesses a possible 20 to 35 percent decline in Russian visitors over a year, driven by factors such as sanctions, payment challenges, and ruble devaluation. This scenario would particularly affect tourism in coastal areas like Antalya and Muğla, which are reliant on Russian charter flights. Scenario C involves a shock to the Turkish lira against the US dollar, linked to tensions on the US–Iran axis. This could temporarily boost dollar-denominated tourism receipts by making Türkiye a more affordable destination, but might also reduce domestic leisure spending as local households adjust their budgets.
Alper Tekin emphasizes that the scenarios are designed as planning tools rather than predictive forecasts, allowing destination management organizations and operators to proactively consider potential impacts before any news events unfold. Detailed outputs for each scenario, including vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies, are available for credentialed media, alongside insights from DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks in 42 countries across six categories.
DataGreat operates as part of Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye, offering a suite of products including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator. The platform leverages a comprehensive dataset from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025, encompassing 42 countries and over 26,000 verified data points, providing invaluable insights for stakeholders in the tourism industry.